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reproduction-number.html
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<title> Reproduction number
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<a href="./reproduction-number.html" rel="bookmark" title="Permalink to Reproduction number">Reproduction number</a>
</h1>
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<p>A much more <a class="reference external" href="r-value.html">detailed discussion is available here</a>.</p>
<div class="section" id="reproduction-number-r">
<h2>Reproduction number R</h2>
<ul class="simple">
<li>The <a class="reference external" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number">Reproduction number R (Wikipedia)</a> [1] expresses how
many people are infected from one person with COVID19.</li>
</ul>
<div class="section" id="computation-of-r-from-measured-data">
<h3>Computation of R from measured data</h3>
<p>The bulletin from the Robert Koch institute [2] reports that an average
infectious period of $tau = 4$ days is assumed. Based on that information, the
description of the method to compute $R$ is [3]</p>
<ul class="simple">
<li>compute an average $<n>_1$ of daily new infections over 4 days (say days 0 to 3)</li>
<li>compute an average $<n>_2$ of daily new infections over 4 subsequent days (say days 4 to 7)</li>
<li>compute the quotient $<n>_2 / <n>_1$</li>
</ul>
<p>Then we repeat this as a sliding calculation for all subsequent days. This is
the current method used in OSCOVIDA.</p>
<p>A much more <a class="reference external" href="r-value.html">detailed discussion of this calculation is available</a>.</p>
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<h3>References</h3>
<p>[1] <a class="reference external" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number">https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number</a></p>
<p>[2] [Robert Koch Institute: Epidemiologisches Bulletin 17 | 2020 23. April 2020](<a class="reference external" href="https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/17_20.html">https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/17_20.html</a>)</p>
<p>[3] "_Bei einer konstanten Generationszeit von 4 Tagen, ergibt sich R als Quotient der Anzahl von Neuerkran- kungen in zwei aufeinander folgenden Zeitabschnitten von jeweils 4 Tagen. Der so ermittelte R-Wert wird dem letzten dieser 8 Tage zugeordnet, weil erst dann die gesamte Information vorhanden ist._"</p>
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<p><abbr title="2020-05-03T10:00:00+02:00"><i class="fa fa-calendar"></i> Sun 03 May 2020</abbr></p>
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