Gathering data on I-bonds and exploring predictors of rate changes
TreasuryDirect has basic information on Series I Savings Bonds ("I bonds").
Rates are updated twice yearly and consist of a base rate and a variable rate. The base rate is fixed for the 30-year life of the bond, while the variable rate is adjusted based on inflation data.
Changes in the variable rate are easily predicted from six-month trailing CPI-U changes (September to March, March to September). Upcoming change in the fixed rate, while likely related to the market for TIPS, is opaque. This small project will explore the possibility of forecasting changes in the fixed rate.